US Election and your KiwiSaver - will it matter?
Apparently, this is going to be the “election to end all elections”! Media have been talking about this for months and unfortunately, that chatter is not going to die down…
US Election and your KiwiSaver - will it matter?

US Election and your KiwiSaver - will it matter
Apparently, this is going to be the “election to end all elections”! Media have been talking about this for months and unfortunately, that chatter is not going to die down any time soon.
At the time of writing this article (30 October), we have no idea who will win. Trump is ahead in the betting markets, though most polls suggest that it is a dead heat and both Trump and Harris are running neck and neck.
We’ve been getting lots of questions about what this means for your KiwiSaver and whether this presents a trading opportunity. The short answer is it does not mean much for your KiwiSaver and events like this, whilst tempting do not present trading opportunities as the outcome is binary so too high risk to place a bet on it!
Set out below are some of the things we have been thinking about in the office. If you have any other questions don’t hesitate to reach out and ask us.
Is this the most important election of all time
No! Most elections are the most important and transformational election of all time. Politicians and their supporters typically believe they are the only ones capable of saving us from tyranny (namely the opposition) so will often position the choice to elect them as existential.
Back in 2016 when Donald Trump won the US Presidency several political commentators started talking about it being the end of the rules-based world order and the end of US Global Dominance. While we did have a chaotic 4 years (or entertaining for news and political junkies) nothing changed and the world continued to chug on. If Donald Trump is elected this time, don’t expect anything different.
What are some of the key policies and how will they impact markets
Both candidates have been light on policy so far and with the split Government system in the US (Senate, Congress and President all needing to agree) there is only so much that a President can achieve. Effectively the Harris policy agenda is a continuation of the status quo without any material changes, particularly given that Harris is unlikely to have Congress or the Senate with her.
Set out below are some of the Trump policies with their potential market impacts.
Trump policy summary
Will the US Deficit finally become an issue?
What is really clear is that neither party has any desire to attack the Deficit and both candidate's policy sets are effectively forecasting a significant increase in the deficit over the coming 10 years.
Set out below are the deficit forecasts from the US Office of Budget Responsibility for each of the candidates.
With eh US Dollar as the Reserve Currency of the world this is unlikely to be a material issue for the US. If anything the use of sanctions and weaponisation of the US dollar against Russia, China, and Iran is driving people to find alternatives to the US Dollar more than anything else.
The one big issue that we are not talking about is the growing cost of interest payments. Interest payments are expected to be more than the amount spent on the military by 2025 and as those payments increase harder and harder decisions will need to be made about where / how spending is prioritised.
Will the tariffs impact us here in New Zealand?
The tariff proposals are unlikely to have a material impact on New Zealand exports. C.15% of New Zealand’s exports go to the United States the majority of which are our traditional agricultural supplies – dairy, wine, and meat. These are all products already subject to tariffs so the impact is unlikely to be material.
So on balance what does it all mean
Overall, we expect a Trump victory to be better for stock markets. The potent combination of lower taxes and regulation will help companies deliver higher earnings pushing up their stock prices. However we also expect that this will be accompanied by higher inflation and interest rates, a Trump victory clearly elevates the risk of a 1970’s style inflation repeat.
A Harris victory is effectively maintaining the status quo, though we need to remember that under Bidenomics the economy and Stock Markets have performed extremely well so this is not a negative scenario for markets.
One risk though is that markets have already priced in a Trump victory. Equity and crypto markets have had a strong run in the past few weeks as the odds of a Trump victory have improved in the betting markets. A Harris victory might see some of this unwind.
Markets have historically been very good at ignoring elections and there is no reason why this one will be any different to the others!
As we approach this pivotal election, it's important to keep perspective. While the media hype calls it the "election to end all elections," the reality is that market impacts may be more nuanced than expected. A Trump victory could lead to stock growth but might also increase inflation, while a Harris win may maintain stability. Instead of getting caught up in the electoral frenzy, focus on your long-term investment goals. If you have questions about how the election could affect your KiwiSaver, feel free to reach out—we're here to help you navigate these uncertain times.
*Kōura Wealth is the issuer of the Kōura KiwiSaver Scheme. View our PDS at kourawealth.co.nz