The Treasury has just released its latest long-term fiscal report (He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025), and the message is hard to ignore: the way New Zealand currently funds retirement and healthcare won’t hold up forever. While the problems won’t hit all at once, Treasury warns that if nothing changes, the government will struggle to cover the costs of pensions and healthcare within the next few decades.

This isn’t about tomorrow’s Budget or next year’s tax cuts. It’s about what life will look like in 10, 20, or 30 years’ time, when today’s workers are looking to retire. And the warning is clear: if we don’t act now, the government won’t be able to keep offering retirement and healthcare support at the levels Kiwis have become used to.

For many of us, especially those still building our careers and raising families, this can feel like just another grim headline. But it’s worth pausing on what this really means for everyday Kiwis, and anyone relying on NZ Super as part of their retirement plan.

What the Report Says

• Rising costs: As our population ages, spending on superannuation (NZ Super) and healthcare is projected to surge. By the 2060s, those two areas alone could account for more than half of all government spending. That leaves less money for schools, infrastructure, or other public services.
• Debt risks: If we keep funding super and healthcare as we do now, government debt could balloon to unsustainable levels. That puts pressure on borrowing costs and risks slowing down the wider economy.
• Limited options: To illustrate the scale of the challenge, Treasury modelled some drastic scenarios — like raising GST to 32% or pushing the pension age up to 72. These aren’t formal recommendations, but they show how big the gap is if we stick to the status quo.

The 10-Year Window to Act

One of the key takeaways is timing. Treasury estimates New Zealand has about a decade to make gradual, measured changes. Waiting longer risks being forced into sudden, harsher decisions by international lenders — the kind that can hit households the hardest.

It’s a bit like ignoring a leaking roof. Fix it early, and it’s manageable. Leave it too long, and you’re dealing with major damage.

What This Means for Everyday New Zealanders

The future of NZ Super is uncertain. That doesn’t mean it will disappear altogether, but the form it takes could look very different - whether that’s a later entitlement age, smaller payments, or stricter eligibility.

For many Kiwis, NZ Super is the backbone of their retirement income. If that backbone weakens, the rest of your plan needs to be strong enough to carry you. That’s where personal savings, and especially KiwiSaver, come in.

Why KiwiSaver Matters More Than Ever

While KiwiSaver wasn’t the central focus of Treasury’s report, the message is loud and clear: Kiwis will need to rely more on themselves. The implications are big:

• Less reliance on NZ Super: If the age of entitlement rises, or payments are reduced in the future, New Zealanders will need to rely more on personal savings for retirement income. This means KiwiSaver will play a much bigger role in helping people retire comfortably.
• Compounding is your friend: Starting contributions now, even small ones, means your savings have time to grow. Think of it as giving your future self more freedom and security.
• Policy shifts are likely: KiwiSaver may become an even more important tool in national retirement planning, with the government potentially encouraging higher contribution rates over time.

What You Can Do Now

It’s easy to feel powerless when reading about problems this big, but there are steps you can take right now:

• Check your KiwiSaver settings: Make sure you’re in the right fund for your age and goals.
• Think long-term: Don’t assume NZ Super will look the same in 20–30 years.
• Take control: Building up your KiwiSaver investment today gives you more independence if government support becomes less generous.

Final Thought

No one likes to think about tough futures, especially when the here and now already feels expensive. But planning ahead is about giving yourself choices. The sooner we prepare, the better off we’ll all be.

Treasury’s report is a reminder: we can’t leave retirement up to chance or the government alone. By making small, smart steps now, every Kiwi has the chance to shape a more secure future - one that doesn’t depend entirely on whether the system holds.

If you’re wondering what this all means for your own retirement, the best place to start is with your KiwiSaver plan. Use our free Guided Choice Tool, to check if you’re on track, see how much you could have at retirement, and make sure your money’s working as hard as you are.

*This content is for informational purposes. Kōura Wealth Limited is the issuer and manager of the Kōura KiwiSaver Scheme. A copy of the Product Disclosure Statement is available at kourawealth.co.nz/documents